关于LSTM预测的问题

Question

最近利用LSTM预测老龄化比率时，计算出的数据令人疑惑，希望得到的解释：代码有没有错误，该如何预测。
附MATLAB代码

load('p.mat');
data=p(:,2)';
numTimeStepsTrain = 33;
dataTrain = data;
mu = mean(dataTrain);
sig = std(dataTrain);
dataTrainStandardized = (dataTrain - mu) / sig;
XTrain = dataTrainStandardized(1:end-1);
YTrain = dataTrainStandardized(2:end);
numFeatures = 1;
numResponses = 1;
numHiddenUnits = 200;
layers = [ ...
    sequenceInputLayer(numFeatures)
    lstmLayer(numHiddenUnits)
    fullyConnectedLayer(numResponses)
    regressionLayer];
options = trainingOptions('adam', ...
    'MaxEpochs',1000, ...
    'GradientThreshold',1, ...
    'InitialLearnRate',0.0001, ...
    'LearnRateSchedule','piecewise', ...
    'LearnRateDropPeriod',1, ...
    'LearnRateDropFactor',1, ...
    'Verbose',0, ...
    'Plots','training-progress');
net = trainNetwork(XTrain,YTrain,layers,options);
net = predictAndUpdateState(net,XTrain);
[net,YPred] = predictAndUpdateState(net,YTrain(end));
for i = 2:6
    [net,YPred(:,i)] = predictAndUpdateState(net,YPred(:,i-1),'ExecutionEnvironment','cpu');
end
YPred=YPred*sig+mu;
plot(1:33,data,'bo-',34:39,YPred,'r*-')
legend('data','pred')

按照前面的数据，应该会保持上升一段时间，可LSTM算法预测出来却不对

Answer 1

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